How GhostRegime Works
A rules-based, long-only system that adjusts exposure when conditions change — without pretending we can predict the exact top or bottom.
What GhostRegime Is
GhostRegime is a portfolio "weather report" that helps you decide how much risk to carry right now — based on what markets are actually doing, not what some guy on YouTube "feels in his bones."
It's built for long-term investors who want:
- fewer faceplants during bear markets, and
- solid participation during bull markets
…without day-trading their retirement like it's a side quest.
Key idea: We're trying to be roughly right, not perfectly wrong.
What It's Not
- •Not day trading. If you're looking for 37 trades a day, you want a casino.
- •Not a crystal ball. We're not calling the top. We're not calling the bottom.
- •Not "sell everything because vibes." It's rules. No vibes.
- •Not designed to save you from every 2–5% wobble. Those happen. A lot. This is built to help reduce exposure during the bigger ~20% gut-punch corrections — based on how this kind of trend system has behaved in historical testing. (No, it's not magic.)
- •Not financial advice. It's an educational tool. You're still the adult in the room (sorry).
The Simple Version
GhostRegime does two jobs:
- Sets the "target" risk level based on market conditions
- Applies a safety brake if the trend weakens or volatility spikes
Think: gas pedal + brake pedal. Same car. Different road conditions.
Step 1: Top-Down Risk Overlay (Targets)
First, GhostRegime classifies the market into one of four regimes:
- GOLDILOCKS (Risk On)
- REFLATION (Risk On)
- INFLATION (Risk Off)
- DEFLATION (Risk Off)
When the market is Risk On, we carry more exposure.
When the market is Risk Off, we carry less exposure.
Plain-English: Risk On = conditions support taking risk. Risk Off = conditions say "maybe don't be a hero."
Step 2: Bottom-Up Overlay (Actuals)
Next, GhostRegime looks at each asset's trend signal and adjusts your exposure:
- Bullish → hold 100% of the target
- Neutral → hold 50% of the target
- Bearish → hold 0% of the target (yes, cash is a position)
We call this the VAMS signal (volatility-adjusted momentum). Translation:
"Is the trend still working… and is it getting dangerously choppy?"
One-liner: When the market starts acting like a drunk raccoon, VAMS sobers the portfolio up.
What You Do With the Signal
GhostRegime publishes "targets vs actuals." Your job is simple:
- If exposures increase, you DCA in (calmly, like an adult)
- If exposures decrease, you cut risk quickly (because drawdowns don't care about your feelings)
This is how you sell near the top and buy near the bottom — not perfectly, but well enough to matter.
Rebalancing (There's No One Right Way)
Because prices move, your portfolio will drift. Rebalancing keeps you close to the published exposures.
Pick one of these approaches:
Option A: Rebalance on signal changes (recommended)
When GhostRegime changes exposure, you rebalance to match.
Option B: Rebalance on a calendar
Weekly, monthly, or quarterly. Boring, consistent, effective.
Taxes, time, and patience vary by person. Choose what you can actually stick to.
Adulting tip: Set a monthly calendar reminder to check your allocations. The market doesn't care that you were busy.
How Ghost Allocator Fits In
Ghost Allocator helps you map these exposures to your actual 457 plan menu (Voya core funds + optional Schwab ETFs).
GhostRegime tells you how much to hold.
Ghost Allocator helps you decide what to hold inside the plan.
Together, they turn "strategy talk" into something you can actually implement without needing an MBA or a therapist.
The Promise
GhostRegime isn't trying to win every day. It's trying to win the war:
- avoid the worst of bear markets
- participate in most of bull markets
- keep turnover low enough that you don't hate your life
GhostRegime is for educational purposes only and does not provide personalized investment advice. Example funds/ETFs are illustrations, not recommendations.
If you want perfection, buy a crystal ball. If you want a process you can actually follow, welcome aboard.