How GhostRegime Works
KISS-style regime targets, proxy-VAMS sleeve scaling, long-only—without pretending we can predict the exact top or bottom.
Why a rules-based process exists
A rules-based process makes changes explicit and repeatable instead of relying on headlines or gut feel. GhostRegime uses published regime and sleeve-brake rules so the same inputs lead to the same model response. No crystal ball. No "I feel it in my bones."
- 1929–1932: U.S. stocks (Dow) fell about 89%, and it took until 1954 to regain the 1929 high.
- Dot-com (2000–2002): Nasdaq-100 fell about 82%, and didn't fully recover until 2015.
- GFC (2007–2009): S&P 500 fell about 57% from peak to trough, and cleared the 2007 closing high in 2013.
Large drawdowns can take years to recover from. That is why GhostRegime makes its exposure rules explicit instead of pretending it can call the exact top or bottom.
What GhostRegime Is
GhostRegime is a portfolio "weather report" that shows how much risk the model is carrying from published rules — based on what markets are actually doing, not what some guy on YouTube "feels in his bones." Targets follow a KISS-style regime map; the Brake uses our own proxy-VAMS signals (SPY, GLD, BTC-USD)—not copied daily sleeve labels from elsewhere.
It's built for long-term investors who want:
- a repeatable way to vary exposure as conditions change, and
- clear rules for when the model scales sleeves up or down
…without day-trading their retirement like it's a side quest.
Key idea: We're trying to be roughly right, not perfectly wrong.
What It's Not
- •Not day trading. If you're looking for 37 trades a day, you want a casino.
- •Not a crystal ball. We're not calling the top. We're not calling the bottom.
- •Not "sell everything because vibes." It's rules. No vibes.
- •Not designed to react to every 2–5% wobble. Those happen. A lot. Exposure changes only when the published regime or sleeve-brake rules change. (No, it's not magic.)
- •Not financial advice. It's an educational tool. You're still the adult in the room (sorry).
The Simple Version
GhostRegime does two jobs:
- Sets Before the brake (what the regime would allow) based on market conditions
- Applies the brake if the trend weakens or volatility spikes
Think: gas pedal + brake pedal. Same car. Different road conditions.
Step 1: Max targets and Before the brake
Max targets are the full-risk baseline by regime (often 60/30/10 in calm regimes; INFLATION and others shift—see Methodology). First, GhostRegime classifies the market into one of four regimes:
- GOLDILOCKS (Risk On)
- REFLATION (Risk On)
- INFLATION (Risk Off)
- DEFLATION (Risk Off)
When the market is Risk On, we carry more exposure. When it's Risk Off, we carry less.
Before the brake is what the regime would allow before any safety cuts — the starting point.
Plain-English: Risk On = conditions support taking risk. Risk Off = conditions say "maybe don't be a hero."
Step 2: Brake (VAMS) and Model mix
Next, the brake (proxy-VAMS — volatility-adjusted momentum on SPY, GLD, BTC-USD) looks at each sleeve's trend signal and can cut exposure:
- Bullish → 100% of the sleeve starting point
- Neutral → 50% of the sleeve starting point
- Bearish → 0% of the sleeve starting point (yes, cash is a position)
Model mix is the model's published mix after the brake is applied.
"Is the trend still working… and is it getting dangerously choppy?"
One-liner: When the market starts acting like a drunk raccoon, the brake sobers the portfolio up.
How to use the model mix
GhostRegime publishes a Model mix (the after-brake allocation) and Cash in model mix (base cash plus anything the brake kicked out).
- Compare that published mix with your own plan and constraints
- Account rules, taxes, time horizon, and risk tolerance still decide whether anything changes
The rules scale exposure down when the published trend rules weaken and restore it when they recover.
Rebalancing (There's No One Right Way)
Because prices move, a live portfolio can drift away from any published mix. There is no required rebalance schedule.
If someone chooses to use the model, two common examples are:
Example A: Compare on model changes
A model change gives you a new published mix to compare with your existing plan.
Example B: Compare on an existing review schedule
Some people review allocations on a regular calendar. GhostRegime itself does not require or recommend a specific schedule.
Taxes, account rules, time, and implementation constraints vary.
How Ghost Allocator Fits In
Ghost Allocator helps you map these exposures to your actual 457 plan menu (Voya core funds + optional Schwab ETFs).
GhostRegime publishes the model mix.
Ghost Allocator maps the published exposures into the supported plan / ETF lineup.
Together, they turn "strategy talk" into something you can actually implement without needing an MBA or a therapist.
Design intent
GhostRegime publishes a mix from regime rules and sleeve brakes. The design intent is simple:
- scale exposure down when the published rules turn defensive
- scale it back up when they improve
- change exposure only when those published rules change
GhostRegime is for educational purposes only and does not provide personalized investment advice. Example funds/ETFs are illustrations, not recommendations.
If you want perfection, buy a crystal ball. If you want a process you can actually follow, welcome aboard.