GhostRegime

Rules-based signals for adjusting portfolio exposure

Last updated: 2026-03-02 (UTC)(1 day old)Fresh

Current RegimeINFLATION

RiskRISK OFF

Methodology

Hold now (Actual): 30/30/0 + 40 cash

Starting point (before brake): 30/30/5 + 35 cash

Brake (VAMS): Stocks full • Gold full • BTC off

Max targets: 60/30/10

Hold now is the instruction. The starting point can be reduced by the safety brake.

Example: if BTC is off, its starting-point % becomes cash.

What do Targets / Scales / Actual mean?

Actionable read:

INFLATIONRisk Off + InflationConfidence: LowConviction: leanBase cash 35%BTC off → +5% cash

Regime Map

Methodology →

Risk Off←

Risk On→

Inflation↑

Disinflation↓

About INFLATION: Risk Off + Inflation. Markets are cautious and prices are rising.

Legend (4)▼

GOLDILOCKS: Risk On + Disinflation. Markets are brave and prices are calm.
REFLATION: Risk On + Inflation. Markets are brave but prices are rising.
INFLATION: Risk Off + Inflation. Markets are cautious and prices are rising.
DEFLATION: Risk Off + Disinflation. Markets are cautious and prices are falling.

Allocations

Stocks

30%(Starting point 30% • Max 60% • Brake 1.0)

Gold

30%(Starting point 30% • Max 30% • Brake 1.0)

Bitcoin

0%(Starting point 5% • Max 10% • Brake 0.0 • off → goes to cash)

Cash (unallocated / leftover)

40%

Base cash (posture): 35.0%. Extra cash from throttling: 5.0% (Bitcoin).

Starting point (30/30/5 + 35 cash) → Brake (full/full/off) → Hold now (30/30/0 + 40 cash)

Why this regime today?

Risk axis: RISK OFF (risk score: -1)

Agreement: 2/3 (67%)•Coverage: 3/5 signals

Confidence: Low•Conviction: 20 (weak)

Inflation axis: INFLATION (inflation score: +2)

Agreement: 3/4 (75%)•Coverage: 4/5 signals

Confidence: Medium•Conviction: 40 (lean)

Agreement history will appear after a couple updates.

→ That combination lands in INFLATION.

Markets are acting like they saw a ghost.

Prices are being spicy.

What do these mean?

Agreement:ⓘHow many available signals vote the same way today.

Coverage:ⓘSignals available / signals expected (some can be missing).

Confidence: Confidence: Heuristic combining agreement + coverage. Not a probability.

Conviction: Conviction: |net vote| per available signals. Strength indicator, not a forecast.

Crowded: Crowded: Extreme conviction + high agreement. Could be clarity… or a crowded trade.

Net vote: Net vote: Sum of all signal votes for this axis. Shows push direction.

Δ since last: Δ since last: Change in key metrics compared to the previous snapshot.

Top drivers today

Risk axis

Agreement: 2/3 (67%)

Net vote: -1/5 (Risk Off)

→EM vs US → Risk On (+1)
Show rule
Rule: >= 0.01
→Risk tie-breaker (SPY TR_21) → Risk Off (-1)
Show rule
Rule: Tie-breaker applied

Inflation axis

Agreement: 3/4 (75%)

Net vote: +2/5 (Inflation)

→Commodities → Inflation (+1)
Rule: >= 0.02
→Commodity Nowcast Basket (Energy+Metals) → Inflation (+1)
Rule: Age: 0d,

These are the two biggest signal votes feeding today's scores. Full receipts live in Nerd Mode.

Regime Classification

Regime

INFLATION

Risk Regime

RISK OFF

Inflation Axis

Inflation

Regime Summary

Regime Confidence: Low

Regime Conviction: 30

Primary driver: Inflation

Why: Inflation stronger than Risk

Flip Watch: STRONG_FLIP

How It Works

•Targets (top-down): Stocks and BTC scale up/down based on Risk On/Off
•Actuals (bottom-up): VAMS can reduce exposure to 50% or 0% when volatility is high
•Cash: What's left when exposure is reduced — the portfolio's "I don't trust this market" expression
•Reality check: This won't protect you from every 2–5% wobble. It's built to help sidestep the 20% train wrecks — and get you back in when the trend turns.

Use This Signal in Your Portfolio

For now: use GhostRegime as a posture check.

If it flips Risk Off, consider applying it to new contributions before making big rebalance moves.

Build a portfolio →View templates →

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How It Works →Model Portfolios →