GhostRegime

Rules-based market regime model with signals for adjusting portfolio exposure.

Last updated: 2026-04-15 (UTC)(1 day old)Fresh

Current RegimeREFLATION

RiskRISK ON

Methodology

Hold now

60/30/0 + 10 cash

Starting point

60/30/10

Sleeve brake

Stocks full • Gold full • BTC off

Full-risk baseline

60/30/10

Since last update

Why cash

Risk On, 60/30/10. Brake: Stocks full size, Gold full size, BTC off. ~10% extra cash (on top of 0% mix).

What do Hold now / Brake / Max targets mean?

Actionable read:

REFLATIONRisk On + InflationConfidence: HighConviction: leanCash now 10%BTC off → +10% cash

Regime Map

Methodology →

The brake scales Stocks, Gold, and Bitcoin using rules-based signals on liquid proxies (SPY, GLD, BTC-USD). Details: Methodology.

Risk Off←

Risk On→

Inflation↑

Disinflation↓

About REFLATION: Risk On + Inflation. Markets are brave but prices are rising.

Legend (4)▼

GOLDILOCKS: Risk On + Disinflation. Markets are brave and prices are calm.
REFLATION: Risk On + Inflation. Markets are brave but prices are rising.
INFLATION: Risk Off + Inflation. Markets are cautious and prices are rising.
DEFLATION: Risk Off + Disinflation. Markets are cautious and prices are falling.

Allocations

Risk sleeves: % of max (60/30/10 baseline). Cash now: actual % held.

Stocks100% of max

Gold100% of max

Bitcoin0% of max

Cash now10%

10% from brake

Pressure Watch

Pressure vs balance, at a glance

Risk

2.00 from Risk Off·—

Inflation

2.00 from Disinflation·—

Closest pressure point

BitcoinNear flip

0.03 from neutral

Next flip impact: Bitcoin +5.0%, Cash -5.0%

Top drivers today

Risk axis

Agreement: 2/2 (100%)

Net vote: +2/4 (Risk On)

→EM vs US → Risk On (+1)
Show rule
Rule: >= 0.01
→VIX stress → Risk On (+1)
Show rule
Rule: <= -0.1

Inflation axis

Agreement: 2/2 (100%)

Net vote: +2/4 (Inflation)

→Commodities → Inflation (+1)
Rule: >= 0.02
→TIP/IEF ratio → Inflation (+1)
Rule: >= 0.005

These are the two biggest signal votes feeding today's scores. Full receipts live in Nerd Mode.

Regime overview

Regime

REFLATION

Risk Regime

RISK ON

Inflation Axis

Inflation

Regime Confidence: HighRegime Conviction: 50

Primary driver: Tie

Why: Tie: both axes strong

Context

Why this regime today?

Risk axis: RISK ON (risk score: +2)

Agreement: 2/2 (100%)•Coverage: 2/4 signals

Confidence: High•Conviction: 50 (lean)

Inflation axis: INFLATION (inflation score: +2)

Agreement: 2/2 (100%)•Coverage: 2/4 signals

Confidence: High•Conviction: 50 (lean)

Agreement history will appear after a couple updates.

→ That combination lands in REFLATION.

Markets are acting brave.

Prices are being spicy.

What do these mean?

Agreement:ⓘHow many available signals vote the same way today.

Coverage:ⓘSignals available / signals expected (some can be missing).

Confidence: Confidence: Heuristic combining agreement + coverage. Not a probability.

Conviction: Conviction: |net vote| per available signals. Strength indicator, not a forecast.

Crowded: Crowded: Extreme conviction + high agreement. Could be clarity… or a crowded trade.

Net vote: Net vote: Sum of all signal votes for this axis. Shows push direction.

Δ since last: Δ since last: Change in key metrics compared to the previous snapshot.

How It Works

•Max targets: Your full-risk baseline (60/30/10).
•Before the brake: What the regime would allow before any safety cuts.
•Hold now: What you should actually hold after the brake is applied.
•Cash now: Base cash plus anything the brake kicked out of risk assets.
•Reality check: This won't save you from every 2–5% wobble. It's built to help sidestep the bigger train wrecks and get you back in when the trend turns.

What to do now

For now: use GhostRegime as a posture check.

If it flips Risk Off, consider applying it to new contributions before making big rebalance moves.

Build a portfolio →View templates →

If you read commit hashes for fun, welcome home. If not, nothing down here changes the signal.

How It Works →Model Portfolios →

GhostRegime

Top drivers today

Risk axis

Agreement: 2/2 (100%)

Net vote: +2/4 (Risk On)

→EM vs US → Risk On (+1)
Show rule
Rule: >= 0.01
→VIX stress → Risk On (+1)
Show rule
Rule: <= -0.1

Inflation axis

Agreement: 2/2 (100%)

Net vote: +2/4 (Inflation)

→Commodities → Inflation (+1)
Rule: >= 0.02
→TIP/IEF ratio → Inflation (+1)
Rule: >= 0.005

These are the two biggest signal votes feeding today's scores. Full receipts live in Nerd Mode.

Why this regime today?

Risk axis: RISK ON (risk score: +2)

Agreement: 2/2 (100%)•Coverage: 2/4 signals

Confidence: High•Conviction: 50 (lean)

Inflation axis: INFLATION (inflation score: +2)

Agreement: 2/2 (100%)•Coverage: 2/4 signals

Confidence: High•Conviction: 50 (lean)

Agreement history will appear after a couple updates.

→ That combination lands in REFLATION.

Markets are acting brave.

Prices are being spicy.

What do these mean?

Agreement:ⓘHow many available signals vote the same way today.

Coverage:ⓘSignals available / signals expected (some can be missing).

Confidence: Confidence: Heuristic combining agreement + coverage. Not a probability.

Conviction: Conviction: |net vote| per available signals. Strength indicator, not a forecast.

Crowded: Crowded: Extreme conviction + high agreement. Could be clarity… or a crowded trade.

Net vote: Net vote: Sum of all signal votes for this axis. Shows push direction.

Δ since last: Δ since last: Change in key metrics compared to the previous snapshot.

How It Works

•Max targets: Your full-risk baseline (60/30/10).

•Before the brake: What the regime would allow before any safety cuts.

•Hold now: What you should actually hold after the brake is applied.

•Cash now: Base cash plus anything the brake kicked out of risk assets.

•Reality check: This won't save you from every 2–5% wobble. It's built to help sidestep the bigger train wrecks and get you back in when the trend turns.