Static previewResearch onlyNot a forecastNot financial advice

GhostFlow: Passive Pressure Gauge

A market-structure research preview for watching the mechanical bid underneath modern markets.

VIX as of 2026-07-01 · Breadth as of 2026-07-01 · ETF week ended 2026-07-01 · Active/index month ended 2026-05-31 · Concentration month ended 2026-03-31 · ICI index share month ended 2026-05-31

Current read

GhostFlow research composite reads 60 · Elevated Flow Pressure (6 public artifact-driven, 1 derived score input, and 3 static mock score inputs).

Distance to model-stress-zone reference (~65% in published framing, 60–65% zone depending on definition): 1.1 pp below — derived from ICI index-share proxy only, not market-wide passive share. Pressure gauge context, not a crash countdown.

ICI fund/ETF index share is 63.9%, but this uses a narrower fund/ETF denominator and is not a market-wide passive-share estimate.

Band label reflects mechanical and structural pressure in the preview model — sensitivity context, not a timed forecast.

GhostFlow Research Composite

6 public score artifacts · 1 derived score input · 7 display-only public artifacts · 3 static mock score inputs

6 public score artifacts1 derived score input7 display-only public artifacts3 static mock score inputsResearch previewNot a forecast

Elevated Flow Pressure

0–100 · higher = more flow pressure / structural fragility

Flow pressure is building. Price discovery may be sharing the wheel more than usual.

Research composite = 50% Passive Pressure (53) + 50% Structural Fragility (67). Not a forecast. Not financial advice.

Feeds the score: 6 public score artifacts + 1 derived input (model-zone proximity from ICI index share).
Static MOCK assumptions: three Passive inputs remain static — systematic 62, retirement 58, levered ETF 55 (VIX still scores options/vol at 20%).
Displayed only: systematic-flow (CFTC), levered-etf-rebalance, retirement-asset-growth, options-activity-proxy, index-inclusion-events, cap-weight-premium, tail-skew-context — visible context, not composite inputs. Tail Skew (SKEW) is display-only and not a score input; VIX remains the score-fed vol level. Related public cards do not replace MOCK score inputs.

Score bands (0–100)

0–20: Quiet Plumbing
21–40: Normal Mechanical Pressure
41–60: Elevated Flow Pressure
61–80: Crowded / Reflexive
81–100: Fragility Zone

Passive Pressure Score

Tracks current mechanical buying/selling pressure from flows, vol, and systematic strategies.

ETF / fund-flow impulsePUBLIC56
Systematic strategy pressureMOCKStatic mock input included in research composite62
Options / volatility amplifierPUBLIC33
Retirement-flow pressure proxyMOCKStatic mock input included in research composite58
Levered ETF rebalance pressureMOCKStatic mock input included in research composite55

Static mock inputs in this pillar are not current measured readings; they are included only in the research composite preview.

Structural Fragility Score

Tracks market-structure vulnerability: concentration, breadth, ICI index share proxy, model-zone proximity.

ICI index share proxyPUBLIC64
Active share / offset proxyPUBLIC75
Index concentrationPUBLIC70
Breadth weaknessPUBLIC33
Model-zone proximityDERIVEDDerived from ICI index-share distance-to-65 logic (same mapping as distance-to-65 context)91

Model-zone proximity is derived from the same ICI index-share distance-to-65 mapping as the context card below; remaining static mock structural inputs are not current measured readings.

Data freshness summary

Latest daily artifacts: 2026-07-01
Latest weekly artifact: Week ended 2026-07-01
Latest monthly artifacts: Month ended 2026-05-31
Oldest / caution: Index Concentrationstale(month ended 2026-03-31)

Summary covers equity Research Composite artifact groups (daily, weekly, monthly score-fed inputs). Display-only and Treasury cards show their own dates and quality labels on each card.

Scope: Six score-fed public artifacts, one derived input, and three static MOCK placeholders feed the research composite. Twelve equity public signal cards (6 score-fed + 6 display-only); Treasury remains separate. Display-only equity cards and Treasury Plumbing provide separate context — they do not change the score. ICI index share is a fund/ETF proxy, not a market-wide passive-share estimate. Full methodology below.

Artifact freshness detail

Index Concentration artifact is 83 calendar days since release (stale threshold: >55). Values shown are last manual update. Refresh recommended.
Tail Skew Context artifact is 9 trading days old (stale threshold: >5). Values shown are last manual update. Refresh recommended.

EducationalNot scoredNot financial advice

Passive endgame scenarios

Possible pathways, not predictions

Six illustrative pathways from passive-flow research as index-oriented share moves toward model-stress zones. They do not have to happen in order, and GhostFlow does not forecast a crash date — it is a pressure gauge, not a countdown clock.

Band ladder (illustrative)

Normal

Watch

Stress Zone

Fragility Zone

Intervention / Reset Risk

Read all six scenarios in methodology — educational only; not part of the Research Composite.

Market-structure signals

Six public score artifacts and one derived input feed the Research Composite. Seven additional public artifacts are display-only context cards — visible on the dashboard, but not score inputs.

Score-fed public artifacts

Hand-updated from public sources. Mapped 0–100 proxy levels feed Passive Pressure or Structural Fragility sub-scores.

Volatility Regime

Proxy level: watch

16.59 (VIX close)

CBOE VIX close 16.59 mapped to a 33/100 volatility amplifier (Watch).

Volatility amplifier proxy — not passive flow and not a crash countdown.

Data: Public proxyDaily

freshVerified manual

As of 2026-07-01 · Released 2026-07-01

Source: CBOE VIX History

Market Breadth Participation

Proxy level: watch

64.0% above 50-day MA · weakness proxy 33/100

StockCharts $SPXA50R 64.0% of S&P 500 names above their 50-day MA mapped to 33/100 breadth weakness proxy (Healthy participation).

Public participation proxy. Measures how many S&P 500 names are above their 50-day MA, not a crash signal. Weak breadth can persist; strong breadth does not guarantee safety.

Data: Public proxyDaily

freshManual (unverified)

As of 2026-07-01 · Released 2026-07-01

Source: StockCharts S&P 500 % Above 50-Day SMA ($SPXA50R)

ETF Net Issuance Pressure

Proxy level: elevated

$16.3B · proxy 56/100

ICI weekly domestic equity ETF net issuance $16.3B mapped to 56/100 flow-pressure proxy (Elevated weekly inflow pressure).

Public proxy only — not passive share or total market flow.

Data: Public proxyWeekly

freshVerified manual

Week ended 2026-07-01 · Released 2026-07-07

Source: ICI Estimated ETF Net Issuance

Active vs Index Flow Differential

Proxy level: high

Active -$27.0B · Index +$33.2B · diff +$60.2B · proxy 75/100

ICI monthly domestic-equity flow differential +$60.2B mapped to 75/100 flow-tilt proxy (Strong index-flow tilt).

Public proxy only — not passive share or active ownership.

Data: Public proxyMonthly

freshVerified manual

Month ended 2026-05-31 · Released 2026-06-30

Source: ICI Active and Index Investing

ICI Index Share Proxy

Proxy level: elevated

ICI fund/ETF index share: 63.9%

Index domestic equity mutual fund + ETF assets divided by active + index domestic equity mutual fund + ETF assets (63.9%; 60–65% band). ICI index share structural sub-input 64/100, not a market-wide passive-share estimate.

ICI index-share data is a public proxy, not a perfect measure of true passive control of market pricing or active price-discovery capital. Not a market-wide passive-share estimate.

Data: Public proxyMonthly

freshVerified manual

Month ended 2026-05-31 · Released 2026-06-30

Source: ICI Active and Index Investing

Index Concentration

Proxy level: high

Top 10 index weight 36.5% · proxy 70/100

SSGA SPY fact sheet top-10 index weight 36.5% mapped to 70/100 fragility proxy (Top-heavy).

Public proxy only — not proof passive flows caused concentration.

Data: Public proxyMonthly

Display-only tail-skew context. Not VIX, not 0DTE, not dealer gamma, and not a score input.

Data: Public proxyDaily

staleVerified manual

As of 2026-06-18 · Released 2026-07-02

Source: CBOE SKEW Index History

Derived context

Derived from the ICI Index Share Proxy — gap to a model-stress-zone reference (~65% in published framing; 60–65% zone depending on definition). Context only, not an additional score sub-input.

Distance to Model-Stress Zone

DERIVED

1.1 pp

1.1 pp below the ~65% model-stress-zone reference (60–65% framing in published research), from the ICI Index Share Proxy (narrow fund/ETF denominator). Context only — possible pathways, not predictions; not market-wide passive share.

ICI index-share data is a public proxy, not a perfect measure of true passive control of market pricing. GhostFlow treats the 60–65% area as a model-stress zone, not a precise tripwire or crash countdown. Derived from the ICI Index Share Proxy only.

DERIVED from public ICI index-share context — displayed for reference, not an additional score sub-input.

What would move this score?

The research composite rises when mechanical pressure and structural fragility proxies move higher, and cools when they ease. This is sensitivity context for the preview model—not a forecast, allocation signal, or crash prediction.

Would push the composite higher

Public measured / manual artifacts

Stronger domestic equity ETF net issuance (ICI weekly)
Higher VIX close → higher volatility amplifier proxy (CBOE daily)
Weaker breadth participation → higher breadth weakness proxy (StockCharts daily)
Higher top-10 index concentration (SSGA SPY monthly)
Higher ICI fund/ETF index-share proxy (monthly assets)
More index-tilted active/index flow differential (ICI monthly flows)

Derived score input

ICI index-share moving toward the model-stress-zone reference (60–65% framing) → higher model-zone proximity

Static mock assumptions in the composite today

Higher systematic strategy pressure placeholder
Higher retirement-flow pressure placeholder
Higher levered ETF rebalance pressure placeholder

Would cool the composite down

Public measured / manual artifacts

Softer or negative domestic equity ETF issuance
Lower VIX → lower volatility amplifier proxy
Broader participation → lower breadth weakness proxy
Lower index concentration
Lower ICI index-share proxy reading
Active flows outpacing index flows in the monthly differential

Derived score input

ICI index-share farther below the model-stress-zone reference → lower model-zone proximity

Static mock assumptions in the composite today

Lower systematic, retirement-flow, or levered-ETF placeholders

All seven display-only equity public cards (CFTC systematic-flow, levered-etf-rebalance, retirement-asset-growth, options-activity-proxy, index-inclusion-events, cap-weight-premium, tail-skew-context) do not feed the score. Tail Skew (SKEW) is display-only context — not a score input; VIX remains the score-fed volatility level. Systematic strategy pressure, retirement-flow pressure, and levered ETF rebalance pressure remain static MOCK score inputs (62 / 58 / 55) until mapping and score-wiring are explicitly approved.

Treasury Plumbing

Display-only Treasury market plumbing context. Separate from the GhostFlow Research Composite.

GhostFlow's main score tracks equity passive-flow pressure and structural fragility. Treasury Plumbing is a separate display-only lane for rates-market context. These cards are not included in the Research Composite, do not change the score, and are not trading recommendations.

Separate from Research CompositeDisplay-only · not scoredNot investment advice

Treasury Futures Positioning Proxy

DISPLAY ONLY

Leveraged funds net short 34.6% OI

CFTC TFF Futures Only Treasury basket (4 core contracts): leveraged funds are net short 34.6% of combined open interest (gross 50.8% OI). Public positioning proxy only — not cash-futures basis, repo, or CTD.

Public CFTC futures-positioning proxy only; not full basis-trade measurement.

Public proxy · Weekly · Not scored

Basket direction:: Leveraged funds net short
Basket lev net % OI:: -34.6%
Basket gross % OI:: 50.8%
Core contracts:: 4
As of:: 2026-06-30
Published:: 2026-07-03
Data quality:: Verified manual

As of 2026-06-30 · Published 2026-07-03 · Verified manual

Source: CFTC Public Reporting Environment — TFF Futures Only (Treasury)

Long-End Income Lens

DISPLAY ONLY

30Y 4.97% · Real 2.78% · 10s30s +0.49 pp

FRED long-end Treasury snapshot: 30Y nominal 4.97%, 30Y TIPS real 2.78%, 10Y breakeven 2.23%. Curve spreads 2s30s +0.80 pp, 5s30s +0.73 pp, 10s30s +0.49 pp. Display-only context; not scored.

Not investment advice; not a bond-buying or duration-allocation signal.

Verified FRED · Daily · Not scored

30Y nominal:: 4.97%
30Y TIPS real:: 2.78%
2s30s:: +0.80 pp
5s30s:: +0.73 pp
10s30s:: +0.49 pp
10Y breakeven:: 2.23%
As of:: 2026-07-01
Published:: 2026-07-06
Data quality:: Verified manual

As of 2026-07-01 · Published 2026-07-06 · Verified manual

Source: FRED — U.S. Treasury constant maturity, TIPS, and breakeven inflation (verified extract)

Methodology & model zones

Trust & clarity pass v1.6a — scoring weights unchanged; passive-share thresholds documented as model-stress zones (not tripwires). Display-only artifact cards documented separately from composite inputs.

Passive stress zones & proxy framing (v1.6a)

GhostFlow treats passive-share thresholds as model-stress zones, not precise tripwires. No single public metric perfectly measures true passive control of market pricing or active price-discovery capital.

Experts often frame the danger zone around 60–65%, depending on definition and denominator. ~65% is a reference point in published framing, not a guaranteed trigger. Some endgame models describe ~65–85% as a possible unstable operating zone — possible pathways, not predictions.

GhostFlow is a pressure gauge, not a countdown clock to a crash date and not investment advice. Passive adoption may be linear, but passive market impact can become convex as the active pool shrinks.

Passive endgame scenarios (educational)

Possible pathways, not predictions · v1.6b

These six scenarios help interpret how passive-share pressure might evolve as the ICI index-share proxy moves toward model-stress zones (often discussed around 60–65%, depending on definition). They are not sequential, not scored, and not a forecast engine.

Illustrative pathway from passive-flow research framing — not a prediction, timetable, or investment recommendation.

Adoption rate vs market impact rate

Passive adoption (fund-industry index share climbing on the ICI proxy) can move steadily, slow, or accelerate. That is a different question from how much passive flows move prices.

Passive market impact can become nonlinear as active price-discovery capital shrinks — even when adoption looks linear on a chart. GhostFlow shows public proxies for context, not proof of acceleration.

Band ladder (illustrative)

Maps loosely to scenario narratives — not GhostFlow composite bands or score thresholds.

NormalMechanical pressure present but markets remain broadly workable.

WatchFlows and concentration build; dependency on the mechanical bid rises.

Stress ZoneModel-stress framing (often 60–65% depending on definition); surface strength may mask thinning participation.

Fragility ZoneFlow reversals and air pockets become more plausible in model terms — not a dated forecast.

Intervention / Reset RiskPolicy response or structural reform paths — outcomes uncertain.

Six scenarios

Benign Plateau

Normal · Watch

Passive share rises slowly while markets remain workable — stress builds in the model without an immediate break.

Index-share growth slows before the 60–65% stress framing on the ICI proxy.
Top-10 concentration stays high but stabilizes rather than accelerating.
Breadth participation improves or holds steady.
Active vs index flow differential stabilizes — less one-way tilt.
VIX and ETF flow proxies stay unremarkable relative to fragility scenarios.

Related GhostFlow indicators

ICI Index Share Proxy (passive-share)
Index Concentration (concentration)
Market Breadth (breadth)
Active vs Index Flow (active-index-flow)
ETF Net Issuance (etf-flow)
Volatility Regime (VIX) (vol-regime)

Illustrative pathway from passive-flow research framing — not a prediction, timetable, or investment recommendation.

Melt-Up / Concentration Boom

Watch · Stress Zone

Passive inflows keep lifting cap-weighted indexes — strength on the surface, rising dependency on the mechanical bid.

Strong domestic equity ETF net issuance supports index-level lifts.
ICI index-share and top-10 concentration climb together.
Mega-cap leadership dominates index returns in narrative terms.
Valuations may stretch while vol stays muted early — complacency risk, not proof.
Cap-weight vs equal-weight divergence is discussed in research but not on this dashboard.

Related GhostFlow indicators

ETF Net Issuance (etf-flow)
ICI Index Share Proxy (passive-share)
Index Concentration (concentration)
Market Breadth (breadth)
Volatility Regime (VIX) (vol-regime)
Cap-weight vs equal-weight — Not on GhostFlow dashboard — future context only.

Illustrative pathway from passive-flow research framing — not a prediction, timetable, or investment recommendation.

Fragility Regime

Stress Zone · Fragility Zone

Headline indexes may still rise, but participation and liquidity quality weaken underneath — a pressure-gauge read, not a crash date.

Breadth deteriorates while concentration stays elevated.
Earnings reactions may feel larger in narrative terms; gaps and vol-of-vol can pick up.
VIX amplifier rises despite “strong” index levels on the tape.
Distance to model-stress-zone reference narrows on the ICI proxy.
Active price-discovery capital feels thinner — qualitative, not measured directly here.

Related GhostFlow indicators

Market Breadth (breadth)
Index Concentration (concentration)
ICI Index Share Proxy (passive-share)
Distance to Model-Stress Zone (distance-65)
Model-zone proximity (structural sub-input)
Volatility Regime (VIX) (vol-regime)
Index Options Intensity (display only) (options-activity-proxy)
Correlation / liquidity index — Not on GhostFlow dashboard — qualitative narrative only.

Illustrative pathway from passive-flow research framing — not a prediction, timetable, or investment recommendation.

Flow-Reversal Shock

Fragility Zone

Passive inflows slow or reverse into a smaller active pool — air pockets, vol spikes, and correlation jumps become more plausible in model terms.

ETF issuance turns weak or negative on the ICI weekly proxy.
Index-share level may stall; flow tilt can flip in active/index data.
Levered ETF rebalance estimates spike on the display card — flow-stress context, not scored.
CFTC positioning may look crowded — display-only systematic-flow context.
Breadth and VIX stress together — still not a timetable for a crash.

Related GhostFlow indicators

ETF Net Issuance (etf-flow)
ICI Index Share Proxy (passive-share)
Market Breadth (breadth)
Volatility Regime (VIX) (vol-regime)
Levered ETF Rebalance (display only) (levered-etf-rebalance)
CFTC Positioning (display only) (systematic-flow)

Illustrative pathway from passive-flow research framing — not a prediction, timetable, or investment recommendation.

Policy Intervention / Market Repair

Intervention / Reset Risk

Authorities and rulemakers respond after stress appears — halts, facilities, retirement-rule debate, or index methodology scrutiny.

Narrative response band — not a GhostFlow score or signal.
May coincide with extreme breadth or VIX readings already on the dashboard.
Does not imply successful repair or a particular policy outcome.
Treasury market-structure / plumbing lens is deferred (v1.7a+).
Possible pathways, not predictions — timing unknown.

Related GhostFlow indicators

Volatility Regime (VIX) (vol-regime)
Market Breadth (breadth)
Treasury Plumbing — Deferred to v1.7a feasibility — not in v1.6b.

Illustrative pathway from passive-flow research framing — not a prediction, timetable, or investment recommendation.

Structural Reform

Intervention / Reset Risk

Rules and defaults shift before a full crisis — allocation mixes may move toward active, factor, or equal-weight approaches over time.

Retirement default and index-construction reform narratives — slow-moving.
ICI mix and flow proxies would adjust over quarters and years, not overnight.
Reduced pure cap-weight dominance is a structural story, not a trade signal.
Would show up gradually in passive-share and active/index flow artifacts if it happens.
Benign intervention path — still uncertain and not scored.

Related GhostFlow indicators

ICI Index Share Proxy (passive-share)
Active vs Index Flow (active-index-flow)
Retirement Asset Growth (display only) (retirement-asset-growth)

Illustrative pathway from passive-flow research framing — not a prediction, timetable, or investment recommendation.

Scoring model

GhostFlow Research Composite = 50% Passive Pressure Score + 50% Structural Fragility Score. Weights are fixed and documented below. The composite uses six score-fed public artifacts (ETF issuance, VIX, ICI index share, active/index flows, SPY concentration, breadth), one derived structural input (model-zone proximity from ICI index share), and three static MOCK passive inputs (systematic 62, retirement-flow 58, levered ETF 55). Six display-only public artifact cards (CFTC TFF positioning, levered ETF rebalance estimate, retirement asset growth, OCC index options intensity from Daily Volume Statistics, index inclusion event proxy, cap-weight premium proxy) show measured context but do not feed the composite. The scored options/vol input remains CBOE VIX — not the OCC activity card (not 0DTE/GEX). The ICI index share score input is not a market-wide passive-share estimate.

Passive Pressure

25% ETF / fund-flow impulse (public ICI weekly in v0.3+) — PUBLIC
20% systematic strategy pressure — MOCK
20% options / volatility amplifier (public VIX) — PUBLIC
20% retirement-flow pressure proxy — MOCK
15% levered ETF rebalance pressure — MOCK

Structural Fragility

30% ICI index share proxy (public ICI monthly assets in v0.6)
20% active share / offset proxy (public ICI monthly flow-tilt in v0.4+)
20% index concentration (public SSGA SPY monthly top-10 weights in v0.5)
15% breadth weakness (public StockCharts $SPXA50R daily in v0.7)
15% model-zone proximity

Methodology details: expand per artifact.

ICI Index Share Proxy public artifact

What it is: ICI domestic equity index fund + ETF assets as a share of active + index domestic equity fund assets, from the monthly Total Net Assets table (not the Flows table). Stored as a percent (e.g. 63.2) and wired into the ICI index share structural sub-input using identity mapping: round(percent) clamped 0–100.

What it is not: not true market passive share, not Green/Krishnan/Sturm model passive share, not market ownership, not float ownership, not trading volume, not marginal price-setting, and not proof of crash risk.

Why domestic equity: cleaner equity market-structure proxy than all long-term assets (which mix bond and hybrid index funds).

Why assets not flows: share is a stock/level concept. ETF issuance (v0.3) and active/index flow differential (v0.4) already cover flow pressure.

Model-stress zones (60–65% framing): published passive-flow research often discusses stress around 60–65%, not one exact tick. GhostFlow uses ~65% only as a reference for distance context — not a tripwire or crash line. The distance card is derived from this public proxy for context only, not a calibrated forecast.

Source: ICI Active and Index Investing release Total Net Assets, Equity → Domestic equity, Active and Index columns. Manual artifact only; no live fetches.

Current public artifact month ended 2026-05-31.

Stale policy (monthly): calendar days since ICI release date (publishedAt, or month ended if absent): 0–35 = fresh; 36–55 = caution; >55 = stale. Caution between monthly updates is expected for manual artifacts.

This is a public fund-industry proxy. Useful plumbing context, not the market's true passive ownership map.

Why 63.9% is not a market-wide passive-share estimate

63.9% = ICI domestic equity index mutual fund + ETF assets divided by active + index domestic equity mutual fund + ETF assets. That is a narrow fund-industry product-structure denominator.

Broader market-structure passive-share estimates try to approximate passive share across the equity market or price-setting ecosystem. Those wider definitions often land closer to the mid-50% range, not because GhostFlow is wrong, but because the denominators differ.

Read the ICI proxy as fund/ETF index-vs-active product mix, not total market passive ownership, float ownership, trading volume, or Green/Krishnan/Sturm model passive-share input.

Model-stress-zone framing (often 60–65% in published research, with ~65% as a reference for distance display) applies to narrative context only — not proof this ICI % equals market-wide passive control. Distance-to-zone is derived from this ICI proxy for context only.

Index Concentration public artifact

What it is: Sum of S&P 500 index weights for the 10 largest constituents, manually extracted from the SSGA SPY US monthly fact sheet. Stored as a percent (e.g. 36.5) and mapped to a 0–100 structural fragility proxy wired into the index concentration sub-input.

What it is not: not passive share, not ownership share, not proof passive flows caused concentration, not automatically bad, and not a crash countdown.

Why monthly: verified manual snapshot from the monthly fact sheet, no live feeds in v0.5. The SSGA product page “Index Top Holdings” is a backup cross-check only.

Why top 10: simple public concentration proxy; HHI and deeper ownership metrics deferred.

Source: SSGA SPY US Monthly Fact Sheet Top 10 holdings index weights. Manual artifact only; no live fetches.

Current public artifact month ended 2026-03-31.

Top 10 index weight (%)	Proxy (0–100)	Band label
≤ 22	20	Broad / lower concentration
22 → 28	20 → 40	Moderate
28 → 33	40 → 58	Elevated
33 → 37	58 → 72	Top-heavy
37 → 40	72 → 85	Highly concentrated
≥ 40	85 (cap)	Highly concentrated

Linear interpolation between anchors (22→20, 28→40, 33→58, 37→72, 40→85).

Stale policy (monthly): calendar days since PDF control/publication date (publishedAt, or month ended if absent): 0–35 = fresh; 36–55 = caution; >55 = stale. Caution between monthly updates is expected for manual artifacts. Valid stale artifacts still display with warning.

Cap-weight concentration can reflect earnings dominance, momentum, valuation, passive flows, or all of the above. Useful fragility context, not a verdict.

Active vs Index Flow Differential public artifact

What it is: ICI monthly domestic-equity Active and Index net cash flows (long-term mutual funds + ETFs combined). GhostFlow computes a flow differential (index minus active) and maps it to a 0–100 flow-tilt proxy wired into the active share / offset sub-input.

What it is not: not passive share, not ownership share, not true active-offset capacity, and not proprietary flow modeling. A monthly public flow-tilt proxy only.

Why monthly: ICI publishes the active/index split on a monthly cadence. Weekly active/index decomposition is not available in ICI public tables; weekly refresh would imply fake precision.

Relationship to ETF artifact: the ETF artifact (v0.3) tracks weekly domestic-equity ETF creation/redemption pressure. This artifact tracks monthly style-flow tilt toward index versus active, complementary dimensions, not redundant copies.

Source: ICI Active and Index Investing release Flows table, Equity → Domestic equity, Active and Index columns. Manual artifact only; no live fetches.

Current public artifact month ended 2026-05-31.

Flow differential (monthly, $M)	Proxy (0–100)	Band label
≤ 0	20	Active tilt / balanced
0 to 20,000	20 → 45	Modest index-flow tilt
20,000 to 50,000	45 → 70	Elevated index-flow tilt
50,000 to 80,000	70 → 85	Strong index-flow tilt
≥ 80,000	85 (cap)	Strong index-flow tilt

Differential = index domestic-equity flow minus active domestic-equity flow (both in millions USD). Linear interpolation between anchors (0→20, 20000→45, 50000→70, 80000→85).

This is a flow-tilt proxy. Useful plumbing, not a full map of price discovery.

ETF Net Issuance public artifact

What it is: ICI estimated weekly net issuance for domestic equity ETFs creation minus redemption from the industry's weekly release. Stored in millions USD; displayed as rounded billions (e.g. $33.9B).

What it is not: not mutual fund flows, not total ETF market issuance, not passive-share level, and not a complete mechanical-bid or passive-flow model. One flow proxy among several.

Why weekly: matches ICI release cadence. Daily refresh would imply fake precision. The underlying series is a weekly estimate that may be revised.

Source: ICI Estimated ETF Net Issuance release Equity → Domestic row. Manual artifact only; no live fetches.

Current public artifact week ended 2026-07-01.

Domestic equity net issuance (weekly, $M)	Proxy (0–100)	Band label
≤ -10,000	15	Quiet outflow
-10,000 to 0	15 → 35	Outflow
0 to 15,000	35 → 55	Moderate inflow
15,000 to 30,000	55 → 72	Elevated weekly inflow pressure
≥ 30,000	72 → 88 (cap)	Elevated weekly inflow pressure

Linear interpolation between anchors (-10000→15, 0→35, 15000→55, 30000→72, 50000→88).

Stale policy (weekly): calendar days since ICI release date (publishedAt, or week ended if absent): 0–7 = fresh; 8–14 = caution; >14 = stale. Valid stale artifacts still display with warning. ICI weekly estimates may differ from monthly actuals and can be revised.

Plumbing gauge, not proof that autopilot dominates price discovery.

Volatility Regime public artifact

Source: CBOE VIX History CSV manually updated daily close. VIX is a volatility amplifier proxy, not passive flow and not a crash countdown.

Current public artifact as of 2026-07-01.

Stale policy (daily): 0–2 trading days = fresh; 3–5 = caution; >5 = stale.

VIX mapping anchors: 12→15, 17→35, 22→55, 28→72, 29→88.

Market Breadth Participation public artifact

What it is: StockCharts $SPXA50R — the percentage of S&P 500 constituents trading above their own 50-day moving average. Mapped inversely into the breadth weakness structural sub-input (higher participation → lower weakness score).

Why 50DMA: More responsive to current participation than 200DMA, which moves slowly and is better suited as optional context later. 50DMA breadth fits a daily manual artifact without pretending to time crashes.

Why not 200DMA yet: Deferred to optional observations only. v0.7 keeps one scored series to avoid fake precision and mixed-vendor complexity.

Pairs with Index Concentration: Concentration tracks cap-weight top-10 dominance; breadth tracks how many names are in short-term uptrends. Both can flag a narrow market or diverge — neither proves passive flows caused narrowing.

Current public artifact as of 2026-07-01.

Mapping (strength % → weakness proxy): 20%→92, 30%→80, 40%→68, 50%→52, 60%→38, 75%→20 (linear interpolation, clamped 0–100).

Stale policy (daily): 0–2 trading days = fresh; 3–5 = caution; >5 = stale. Same rules as VIX.

Participation proxy only — not a crash signal. Weak breadth can persist; strong breadth does not guarantee safety. Structural context, not timing advice.

ICI index share proxy model stress zones

GhostFlow uses published passive-flow framing where ~65% is a reference point inside a broader 60–65% model-stress zone (definition- and denominator-dependent) — not a precise tripwire. The public ICI fund/ETF index share proxy supplies the level display when available; model-zone proximity is derived from the same distance mapping when the ICI artifact is present (v0.9b). This is not a market-wide passive-share estimate or active price-discovery capital map.

Band table below uses the same illustrative model bands as scoring helpers. Bands describe model interpretation, not forecast outcomes or crash timing.

Current ICI fund/ETF index share: 63.9% (60–65%, Pre-stress: below the assumption-sensitive model zone; not yet at 65%.)

Band	Model interpretation
Below 50%	Normal
50–60%	Watch
60–65%	Pre-stress
65–75%	Model Stress Zone (assumption-sensitive; not a guaranteed crash line)
75–87%	Severe Fragility
87–91%	Cubic Volatility Zone
Above 91%	Theoretical Feller Zone

What GhostFlow does not claim

Does not predict exact tops or bottoms, market crashes, or crash dates (pressure gauge, not countdown clock).
Does not provide buy/sell recommendations or allocation advice.
Does not treat model-stress zones or ~65% reference levels as guaranteed outcomes or precise tripwires.
Does not use live feeds. Six score-fed manual public artifacts plus seven display-only public cards and static MOCK composite inputs elsewhere.
Does not treat display-only CFTC, levered ETF rebalance, retirement asset-growth, OCC index options intensity, index inclusion event proxy, cap-weight premium proxy, or Tail Skew context cards as Research Composite inputs — MOCK 62, 55, and 58 still drive those passive sub-inputs; VIX still drives options/vol; SKEW is display-only tail-skew context, not a VIX replacement.
Does not treat ETF net issuance, active/index flow differential, ICI Index Share Proxy, index concentration, market breadth participation, or VIX as complete mechanical-flow or true passive-share measures.
Does not claim the ICI 63.9% proxy equals a market-wide passive-share estimate.

Think plumbing, not prophecy: pressure in the pipes, not a date for the flood.

What to watch next

GhostFlow uses six public score artifacts, one derived score input (model-zone proximity from ICI index share), seven display-only public artifacts (CFTC TFF, levered ETF rebalance, retirement asset growth, OCC index options intensity, index inclusion event proxy, cap-weight premium proxy, Tail Skew context), and three static mock score inputs in the equity research composite (publicSignalCount 13). Treasury Plumbing is a separate display-only lane — not in the equity signal grid or publicSignalCount. Options activity is not 0DTE/GEX and not score-fed — VIX remains the scored options/vol input. Tail Skew (SKEW) is display-only tail-skew context — not a score input. Retirement-flow pressure stays MOCK 58 (v1.2e display-only); levered mapping (v1.1e) and score wiring (v1.1f / v1.2f) remain product-gated; CFTC score wiring is separately gated.

·OCC index options intensity — display-only; Index/Others column; mapping not final (v1.4e)
·Index inclusion event proxy — display-only; Nasdaq-100 component changes; mapping not final (v1.9c.4)
·Cap-weight premium proxy — display-only; SPY/RSP spread/ratio; mapping not final (v1.9b.4)
·Tail Skew context — display-only; Cboe SKEW tail-skew pricing; not a score input; mapping not final (v1.9e.5)
·CTA / vol-control proxy
·Levered ETF rebalance pressure — display-only artifact; mapping not final (v1.1e)
·Retirement asset growth — display-only ICI quarterly artifact; mapping not final (v1.2e)
·Treasury Plumbing — shipped v1.7e as separate display-only lane (2 production cards); v1.7f kept unscored (no mapper/status bands); future: optional v1.7f-calibration / v1.7f.1 percentiles; v1.7g score gate not approved
·HHI or effective-number concentration metric